Viewing Guide to Group C's Finale

After "winning" 1-1 against England, the USA was off to a great start.  Things fell apart quickly last Friday, when the Slovenia game did not begin exactly as planned.  Down 2-0 at halftime, the Americans were in deep trouble.  A loss would've effectively knocked them out of the tournament.  Only five teams in World Cup history had ever come back from two goals down, but the US needed at least a draw to stay alive.  They fought back heroically in the second half however, and actually scored 3 goals, only for one to be controversially disallowed.  The game finished 2-2, which was enough to keep the American's alive.  England continued to struggle, and could only draw against Algeria, totally opening up the group, and creating many different scenarios for tomorrow's games.

Here is the group table with one match left for each team (Click to see full size):

Remember the top two teams will advance.  Both games are tomorrow morning (Wednesday, June 23nd) at 7AM PT.  The Americans play Algeria on ESPN, and England takes on Slovenia on ESPN2.  Picture in picture or split screen is encouraged.  The games are also streaming on ESPN3.com if you want to monitor the England game while watching the USA game on your TV.


So, what exactly has to happen tomorrow for the USA to advance into the group stage?  Let's keep this as simple as possible. 


If the USA beat Algeria
They are guaranteed to make it through the group stage, and into the knockout round.  Depending on the result of the England v. Slovenia game, they will either finish the group in second or first position. 

If the USA draw with Algeria
This is where it gets complicated.  If the Americans draw, they are going to need help from Slovenia.  An England win coupled with a USA draw would send the Americans out.  An England loss and an American draw, would see the USA through.  What if both games tomorrow end in a draw?  That's where it gets really complicated.*

If the USA lose to Algeria
They will be eliminated from the World Cup.  It won't matter how much they lose by, or what happens in the other match- a loss tomorrow and they're out. 


*One crazy scenario
If the USA and England both draw tomorrow, Slovenia would be through with 5 points and England and USA would be tied with 3 points each.  Both their goal differences (first tiebreaker) would be zero, because they each would have each drawn all three matches.  The second tiebreaker is goals scored.  The Americans have a two goal lead in this category, so if they both draw 1-1 for example, the Americans would be through.

But if England manages to get level on goals scored too, then it gets weird.  For example, let's say the Americans draw 0-0, and England draw their match 2-2.  They would each have 3 goals scored and 3 goals conceded.  Their head-to-head matchup (3rd tiebreaker) was even.  So it would come down to a "drawing of lots".  FIFA would essentially flip a coin to decide which teams goes through, and which goes home.


The more you think about it, the more complicated it gets.  And I haven't even factored in the scenarios that would lead to a group win for the Americans, as opposed to finishing second.  And then at 11:30AM Group D plays, with their top two teams playing the top two teams from Group C.  You could make it even more complicated by factoring in which team the USA would rather play in the knockout round- Germany, Ghana, or Serbia... It's enough to make your head explode. 

But when it's all said and done, it's really pretty simple.  The Americans know what they have to do- win.  We can make it more complicated if we want, but if the USA beat Algeria tomorrow, they're through, and likely as group winners.  Before the tournament started, most saw the Algeria match-up as an easy game for the Americans, but the African side tied England last week, so anything is possible.