The World Cup Final is the most exciting, dramatic and important sporting event on the planet. That doesn't necessarily mean its the best or most scintillating game of the tournament though. I think that honor goes to this morning's match.
Germany beat Uruguay 3-2 in today's outstanding third place match. It was my favorite contest of the tournament so far. Because it was the third place game, it featured two great teams. They had something to play for because 3rd is obviously better than 4th, but they weren't scared to lose either, since it didn't matter too much. Both teams attacked each other from the beginning. The game was quick and flowing, and we saw a series of great counter attacks.
Germany's rising star Thomas Müller (20 years old) played great, and scored his fifth goal (tied for the World Cup lead) of the tournament. He's a lock to win the tournament's Best Young Player award. One wonders what might have happened if he wasn't suspended for the semifinal against Spain.
One the other side, Uruguayan star Diego Forlan stole the show once again. He scored an amazing volleyed goal from long distance, and like Muller it was his fifth. He also hit the cross bar in the 93rd minute on a spectacular freekick that would have sent the game into extra tme. He's been outstanding all tournament, and will be a favorite to win the Golden Ball (the MVP award in the World Cup).
The Final
But enough about the third place game, the Final is the only game that matters now. Kicking off at 11:30AM PT tomorrow (Sunday) on ABC, the Final will pit Spain against Holland. Neither Spain nor Holland have ever won the World Cup. Holland has lost in the Final twice, and Spain had never even made it to the semi-finals before this tournament. These two European Soccer-powers are arguably the two best teams to never win the World Cup, and will both be looking to take that bit of trivia out of their history tomorrow.
By this point in the tournament, you've watched tons of games. I'm sure you know understand the basics, and hopefully more. You know which players are the stars, and likely have opinions about both of these teams already. I won't bore you with the mundane details. But here are five things to watch for that may play a key role in tomorrows match:
The Drama of the Final
There really isn't a more dramatic sporting event in the world. Winning a World Cup Final is the ultimate goal for every elite soccer player. There is no bigger trophy in soccer. The 22 players on the pitch tomorrow will have worked their entire lives for this one moment, for this one chance. Likely, it'll be there only chance- it's just so hard to get back. Everything in the whole tournament, and their entire careers, have built up to this game. The winners will be champions, heroes and imortalized in their countries. The losers will have to spend the rest of their days knowing how close they got, and dwell on what could have been.
Most of the planet will completely shut down for two hours tomorrow to watch the game. It's tough to estimate exact ratings, but most estimates say the World Cup Final regularly attracts a viewership of over a billion. And the players know just how many people are watching their every move. When you add the pressure of one game that decides entire legacies to the huge media attention and global audience, crazy things can happen. Some players will thrive under the pressure, other will wilt under it. Or even worse, some may totally lose their heads. And that brings us to our next key.
Discipline
When players are under so much pressure, and the game is so important, mistakes happen. These mistakes: a poor pass, a key turnover, a missed opportunity to score- can be costly when the margin for error is so low. The most costly though are lapses of discipline.
One bad tackle or one moment of madness (see Zidane, Zinedine: 2006) can change everything. To avoid costing their team a World Cup, players must keep from getting on the referee's bad side. A red card, especially an early one, will almost certainly doom a team. An early yellow card will mean tentative play the rest of the game, in fear of getting a second booking.
You never know who will make the huge mistake- if there is one- but there a few players who I think stand out as likely candidates. Dutch midfielder Mark van Bommel has been extremely physical all tournament. In the Brazil game he commited what seemed like two dozen fouls, and didn't even draw a yellow card. He played the same way in the semi-final vs. Uruguay and was lucky to only be shown a yellow card. He doesn't just foul either, he always give a little something extra. You know if you've been fouled by Van Bommel. He needs to be careful with his dirty tricks tomorrow, or he could go down in infamy. Another Dutch Midfielder, Nigel de Jong, is at risk to get sent off at any time. He broke American Stuart Holden's leg in a friendly a few months ago, and is never one to shy away from a reckless challenge.
On the Spanish side, no single player stands as "dirty", or a threat to be sent-off from the biggest stage. The Spanish play a less physical game. Holland has 15 yellow cards (and 98 fouls) so far in the World Cup, compared to only 3 bookings for Spain (on 62 fouls). I really think this will be a key tomorrow. Neither team have got a red card yet, but it could happen tomorrow. It just takes one bad tackle, one rush of blood to the head, to change everything. British match official Howard Webb isn't notably quick to dish out cards, but the pressure of the Final can affect the referee as well.
The First Goal
The opening goal is always hugely important in soccer. Surprisingly, in the World Cup Final it doesn't always seem to mean as much. The team that scores first has won nine times, and lost eight times. For tomorrow however, I can almost guarantee that the team which scores first will be Champions. This is largely due to the way Spain plays.
Spain have only lost twice in the last two years since winning the 2008 Euro Cup (the mini-world cup between European nations). In both of those losses (to the USA last summer, and Switzerland in the group stage of this tournament) the Spaniards have conceded first. Their game is based on possession. They like to hold the ball, play short passes and slowly build up scoring opportunities. Often they can have 60% or more ball possession in matches. They are exceedingly patient with their build up. This is their greatest strength, and biggest weakness.
When Spain score first, they are excellent at protecting leads. They frustrate their opponents by patiently knocking the ball around, keeping possession, and relying on great defenders and the world's best goal keeper (Iker Casillas) to get wins. Yet, their style is not conducive at all to chasing games. If they give up the first goal and find themselves behind, especially they go behind in the match's later stages, they'll be in huge trouble. They cannot attack quickly- it's just not in their nature or style.
Key Players
I've already mentioned Dutch midfield enforcers De Jong and Van Bommel, as well as Spanish star goalie Iker Casillas. The Dutch have a wealth of offensive talent as well, with Wesley Sneijder shining the brightest. He has had a fabulous tournament and is tied for most goals scored, with 5. A tiny attacking midfielder, Sneijder can do it all. He can score goals in any fashion, as well as set up teammates with precise short passes or clever long balls. He is also an accomplished freekick taker.
Speedy Arjen Robben will also cause problems for the Spanish. He is a left-footed player whom the Dutch love to play on the right wing. He gets up and down the flank all game, terrorizing outside backs with his pace and cutting inside to unleash lethal left-footed shots.
For the Spanish, many players have stood out so far. Defender Carlos Puyol has had a nearly flawless tournament, providing stability in the back, and even chipping in with a key goal in their semi-final victory.
Diminutive creative midfielder Xavi is one of the best players on the planet, though you may not even notice him tomorrow. He rarely does the spectacular, yet almost never makes a mistake. His passing ability is unparalleled in the soccer world. He can complete passes at any distance, and sees angles and lanes other players can't even imagine. His incisive through balls often lead to easy opportunities for the forwards.
Striker David Villa has really come into his own this World Cup. He has always been a great player, but has moved to the next level in this tournament, establishing himself as a world star. He's been outstanding. Tied with the aforementioned Sneijder (as well as Forlan and Muller), he leads the tournament with 5 goals. Spain in total only have 7 goals this tournament. I think that says enough about Villa's importance.
Finally, I want to highlight one player who has not had a good tournament at all- Spanish forward Fernando Torres. Torres, who plays for the English club Liverpool, is one of the most talented and popular players on the Spanish side. The 26 year old has scored 24 times in 79 games for his country. Unfortunately, he suffered a couple of injuries in the build up to the World Cup, and was nearly left out of the squad after knee surgery in late April. He hasn't had enough time to get fully fit, and isn't in game-shape mentally or physically. After coming off the bench in Spain's first game, he got a chance to start for a few matches, but really didn't offer much to the Spanish attack. He has since returned to the bench, and will likely be a substitute at kickoff tomorrow. I just think he's too talented of a player to have a tournament like this, regardless of injuries or fitness. He'll likely come off the bench and get a chance tomorrow, especially if the game is close. I have a weird feeling he's going to score a huge goal and make everyone forget about the poor tournament he's had.
Penalty Kicks
I think all soccer fans regardless of rooting interest will agree- no PKs, please! Only two World Cup Finals have ever been decided by penalties, but those two were both in the last four tournaments (1994 and 2006). As you may remember, the last World Cup was won by Italy defeating France on penalties.
Nobody likes to see such a huge game and tournament decided on spot kicks. They are certainly not "luck" or "a lottery" as some pundits describe them, but we can all agree that they are not the best way to decide a soccer game. With penalties, the game is decided on nerve, bravery, goal keeping and dead ball technique.
Penalties are extremely dramatic, and may be fun for the neutral fan, but they're horrible for the players. They're so cruel to the losing team; there is no worse way to lose. I'm hoping to see a team win convincingly in regulation tomorrow, with no penalties and no controversial decisions.
Prediction
With all the above considered, it's time for my prediction. My predictions thus far have been solid, but not outstanding. I must admit I didn't have either of these teams making the Final to begin with. But if an octopus can make a prediction, I think I'm entitled to make one as well. It's a tough match to call, and I don't think there is a clear favorite or obvious choice.
My gut says Spain will win 2-1, and as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't be shocked to see Torres grab one of the goals. Since Paul (the aforementioned Octopus) agrees with me, you can probably take my prediction to the bank.
Whoever you're rooting for, and wherever you're watching, I hope you enjoy the Final. I know I will. Thanks for following along on this blog throughout the World Cup, and check back in the next few days for a tournament wrap-up.
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