The Quarterfinals

Eight more teams have fallen.  Among them are England (who were hugely outclassed by Germany, though not without controversy), Japan (who lost the tournaments first penalty shootout to Paraguay) and of course, the USA. 

Most would agree the round of sixteen exit by the Americans is pretty disappointing.  They won their group, and everything was set up nicely for them to make a run deep into the knockout round.  But they were the second best team on the field last Saturday in Rustenburg, and were deservedly knocked out by a solid Ghanaian side.

Two schools of thought have emerged regarding the American's tournament as a whole.  To some, the entire tournament was a big failure.  The USA led all their games for a combined 2 minutes, looked terribly shaky defensively, and set their expectations way too low.  They blew a huge chance to make it deep in the tournament, and lost to an average Ghana team.  Their only win was against a very weak Algerian team, and even that was barely a win.  The Americans came only moments away from not even making it out of their group.

To others, the tournament was a successful one, and something that future teams can build on.  The Americans got a draw against huge favorites England, were cheated out of a win against Slovakia, had another disallowed goal against Algeria, but still kept fighting to win in dramatic fashion, with one of the most exciting goals in American soccer history.  They won their group for the first time in decades, and were favorites in a knockout round game.  They fell short due to injuries and shoddy defending, but ultimately overachieved.

I tend to fall in with those of the second school of thought.  As an American soccer fan, I'm very proud of my team.  I think we showed the world that we can compete with anyone.  I think this tournament, more than any other in the past, really galvanized support domestically.  It was great to see so many people supporting and talking about American soccer.  I'm proud of the way the team handled adversity, never gave up, and always played their hardest.  I'm not the only one who's proud of the team either. 

But, as hard as it may be to accept- the Americans are done.  The tournament still goes on of course, and it continues Friday morning.  The tournament is completely wide open, and the final 10 days should be amazing for soccer fans, even for Americans still on a post-defeat hangover.  There are eight teams left, five of whom have a realistic shot at winning the whole tournament: Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Holland and Spain.  The others: Paraguay, Ghana and Uruguay will be looking to create some huge upsets, and write soccer history in their countries.  Here are the four quarterfinal matchups:


Friday July 2nd

Holland vs. Brazil 7:00AM PT ESPN
This is one of the two quarterfinal matchups that people are most excited about.  Both of these teams are undefeated so far in the World Cup, and both look very strong.  The winner of this matchup is almost assured of a place in the Final, because they will play the winner of Uruguay v Ghana.  Holland have beaten Denmark, Japan, Cameroon and Slovakia to get to this point.  Brazil beat North Korea and Ivory Coast, drew with Portugal and then beat Chile.  Neither have faced another world class team yet, so it will be interesting to see how they respond to playing each other.  I finished 6 of 8 with my predictions for the 'sweet 16' so I'll give it another go for this round.  I think Brazil are the favorites for this match, and should take care of business.  They were my pre-tournament pick to win it all, and I'm sticking with them.  Holland have looked great so far, but a win here by the "Oranje" would have to be considered an upset.  

Uruguay vs. Ghana 11:30AM PT ESPN
This is the game getting the least attention of the four matchups.  Most pundits don't give either team a realistic shot to win the Cup, as it's very hard to imagine either beating Holland or Brazil in the semi-finals.  I'm afraid that assessment is fair.  However, that certainly doesn't make this matchup a snoozer.  In my opinion, it's the hardest to call of the round.  Either team could win it, and it should be an open and exciting match.  Both teams should be playing free of pressure, as they've already exceeded expectations so far.  Uruguay is probably a slight favorite, but Ghana seemingly has most of the African continent backing them.  I'm picking Uruguay, because I think they're solid in attack and defense, and with Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan, have the best two players on the pitch. 


Saturday July 3rd
 
Germany vs.  Argentina 7:00AM PT ABC
This is another blockbuster.  If (for some ridiculous reason) you can only watch one match this weekend, make it this one.  It combines the talent of the Brazil vs Holland with the uncertainty of Uruguay vs Ghana.  Add in a budding rivalry, and you have the recipe for a true epic.  While I've been picking Brazil all along, I truly believe the winner of the tournament could come from this match-up.  Almost no result would be surprising.  Germany could win 3-0, Argentina could win 2-1, it could go to penalties like their matchup in 2006...  I really don't know, and anyone who claims they do is making things up.  

Argentina have defied all expectations so far.  Many expected them to flame out early under the 'leadership' of Diego Maradona, but he has proved all his doubters wrong, getting the team to rally around him and play their hearts out.  Most expected Lionel Messi would have to put the team on his back for the South Americans to go far, but this true has proven incorrect.  Messi has played well, but he's yet to have one signature game this tournament (or score a goal).  If he manages to break out in this one, the Argentines will surely win.  

The Germans have had an up and down tournament so far, but seem to be peaking at the right time- they're coming off a 4-1 thorough dismantling of rivals England.  They have no real weaknesses, yet no superstars like Messi or even Sergio Aguero.  While Argentina has been exciting and attention grabbing, the Germans have been quietly progressing through the tournament.  It's hard to pick against a coach who puffs on a cigar during training, but I'm going to do just that and pick the Germans.  I just think they have a certain mystique about them, and always do well in big tournaments, even when they're not playing their best.  Argentina is the popular pick and favorite, but I think the German team will surprise people.  


Spain vs. Paraguay 11:30AM PT ABC
Perhaps a bit of a let down after the mornings clash, this match may still have some fireworks left for viewers.  Spain were the trendy choice of many before the tournament began, and seem to finally be clicking after a slow start.  Star striker David Villa is on fire, and completely dominated in their last match vs. Portugal.  Spain must know they are only 3 wins away from their first World Cup, and have the players to do it.  On the other hand, Paraguay must be happy just to have made it this far, and needed penalties to get past Japan in one of the most dull matches of the World Cup so far.  

I still have reservations about Spain however, as they normally find a way to choke in World Cups.  They haven't looked amazing in any of their games, and are definitely vulnerable.  I'd love to pick Paraguay in a massive upset, but I don't think they have enough talent or belief.  I just can't look past Spain in this one.